Cyberspace Windows of Superiority: Gaps and Challenges

Author(s):

Melissa Thomas and Stephen Raio

Abstract:

This report defines a cyberspace window of superiority (CWoS) as a window limited in time and scope when prohibitive interference with mission execution from the cyberspace domain is precluded. Tactical commanders require the capability to identify, predict, and create a CWoS. This report considers existing literature and tools for mission-centric and mission-based cyber risk assessments as a point of departure for further research. However, the purpose and scope of a CWoS estimate differs from most of the existing examples in that it is intended to inform the multidomain decisions of a tactical commander. Moreover, the tactical use case requires methodologies that 1) enable rapid prediction and updating, 2) explicitly model and convey uncertainty, 3) are explainable, 4) support modular modeling, 5) enable defensible fusion of different types of information, 6) are capable of verification and validation, and 7) are achievable with the limited analytic resources at the edge. Data availability for modeling remains a principal challenge, and relevant data is required to produce estimates certain enough to be useful. Future research will explore the use of mission templates and prebuilt, probabilistic, modular models that can be locally populated.