Exploratory Modeling of Tactical Cyberspace Windows of Superiority

Author(s):

M. A. Thomas and Stephen Raio

Abstract:

Cyberspace windows of superiority are windows limited in time and scope in which mission execution is unlikely to face prohibitive interference from the cyberspace domain. If commanders could identify or predict such windows, they could increase the chances of successful mission execution by taking advantage of them or by taking steps to create or extend those windows. We use exploratory modeling with synthetic data to consider the feasibility of, and requirements for, a quantitative approach to estimate or predict the existence of a cyberspace window of superiority under the constraints at the tactical edge. The exploratory modeling exercise highlights challenges that must be overcome, including data availability and imbalance, the propagation and communication of imprecise and second-order probability, and the identification and modeling of dependencies, with implications for computational cost. It concludes that tailored solutions will require modular modeling, abstraction, automation, and cloud reachback. A cyberspace window of superiority modeling tool would likely be a component of an automated mission planning tool.